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In the commercial airline business, with lots of lives at stake, the tolerance for risk is-and should be-very, very low. The reality is that aviation safety is all about relative risk, and keeping that risk at an acceptably low level. Choose any American kid at random he or she is more likely to be elected president of the United States than to die on any given jet flight, and 10 times more likely to win an Olympic gold medal. You’re more likely to freeze to death or drown in your own bathtub, about 10 to 40 times more likely to face injury or death in an automobile, by one estimate. You would have to fly every single day for the next 63,000 years before you would be likely to die in a jet airliner crash, Barnett estimates. MIT statistician Arnold Barnett calculated that risk in the United States in June 2009 as roughly one in 23 million. How inconsequential? What people really want to know is their risk of dying (by accident) on a random flight. Statistically, the risk is almost inconsequential. airlines from 2007 through 2011-that’s 10 times the entire population of the United States-and only 50 died, all in a single regional airline turboprop crash.
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More than three billion people flew on U.S. Excerpted from "Full Upright and Locked Position: Not-So-Comfortable Truths About Air Travel Today"įlying is safe in any rational sense, maybe safer than ever.